Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DF 0xdff7…d9d4 crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-5%) realized +$5 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$42
sports 46% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -11.8% -20.2% 39% 39% -12.0%
≤30d 36 -11.8% -20.2% 39% 39% -12.0%
≤90d 36 -11.8% -20.2% 39% 39% -12.0%
all 36 -11.8% -20.2% 39% 39% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 39% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 31% -20.4%
15% -34.8% 19% -28.1%
20% -41.2% 19% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 43
History coverage4d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 25¢ 12¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$16 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +35%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $44 −$43 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -96%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$5 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +155%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $28 +$31 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $16 +$68 +414%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 57m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 47h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $41 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 7¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.84 · official $4.84 (match) · 127 history records