Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdff7…94d5 other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,360 (-13%) realized −$1,743 · open +$383
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate29%19W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$405
7 days−$688
14 days−$891
30 days−$999
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$597
other 24% −$794
world 13% +$1
sports 5% −$127
culture 1% +$3
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -12.7% -21.0% 35% 20% -28.9%
≤30d 33 -21.6% -29.1% 27% 12% -25.5%
≤90d 50 -30.8% -37.4% 24% 14% -27.7%
all 65 -25.7% -32.8% 29% 17% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 17% -28.2%
10% -39.2% 14% -35.1%
15% -45.1% 12% -41.3%
20% -50.5% 9% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$52 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$1,295
Realized−$1,743
Unrealized+$383
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses19 / 46
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)65 / 73
History coverage167d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 61¢ 98¢ $644 $1,040 +$396 (+61%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $207 $196 −$11 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 78¢ 72¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 23 $125 +$165 +132%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 $0 -21%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 21 $6 −$2 -39%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $26 −$10 -38%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $1,778 −$564 -32%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Portugal win the World Cup? Jun 21 $21 −$12 -59%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $6 +$1 +8%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 21 $7 −$1 -10%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 21 $17 $0 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $927 −$294 -32%
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$4 +7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 17 $121 +$13 +11%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $28 −$5 -17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -88%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -26%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $402 −$187 -46%
Will voter turnout be 64%+ in the second round of the 2026 Colombian p Jun 10 $8 −$2 -26%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $17 +$2 +9%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -42%
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Jun 08 $50 −$1 -2%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 05 $63 +$1 +2%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $1,839 −$93 -5%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $398 −$131 -33%
Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $57 −$56 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Apr 28 $25 +$10 +40%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $97 −$3 -3%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $214 −$71 -33%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $20 −$15 -75%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 15 $5 −$3 -70%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 09 $6 +$5 +83%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M Apr 01 $284 +$56 +20%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Apr 01 $76 −$76 -100%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Apr 01 $117 −$65 -55%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars? Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Apr 01 $50 −$25 -51%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 01 $15 −$10 -67%
Will Colombia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $20 −$17 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $201 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 99¢ $201 1h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 9h
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $24 9h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 20h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 99¢ $50 20h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 60¢ $5 34h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 40¢ $5 34h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 39¢ $42 35h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 63¢ $41 35h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 63¢ $463 35h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 59¢ $9 36h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 59¢ $10 36h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 59¢ $2 36h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 66¢ $8 36h
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 36h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 36h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 2¢ $1 36h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 36h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 36h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 37h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 37h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 57¢ $48 39h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 39h
Will Portugal win the World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 39h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 39h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 39h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,295.48 · official $1,295.48 (match) · 347 history records