Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DF 0xdff6…0918 sports 1107 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$143 (+1%) realized +$22 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%619W / 451L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day45.9pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days−$324
14 days−$320
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -7.8% -16.6% 51% 50% -22.6%
≤30d 738 +4.2% -5.7% 60% 57% -9.4%
≤90d 1070 +1.7% -8.0% 58% 55% -9.3%
all 1070 +1.7% -8.0% 58% 55% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 55% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 49% -18.0%
15% -24.8% 41% -25.9%
20% -32.2% 33% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2.1002134503607066% → late 5.483596629087424% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses619 / 451
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions37
Markets (closed)1070 / 1107
History coverage53d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day45.9
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 1070 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 66¢ 65¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Jaime Faria 84¢ 84¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Antonia Rivera 49¢ 48¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Set Handicap: Faria (-1.5) vs Echargui (+1.5) Faria 60¢ 60¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 73¢ 72¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 63¢ 64¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Alex de Minaur 80¢ 80¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Anastasia Potapova 53¢ 54¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) Tien 58¢ 55¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Tereza Valentova 38¢ 40¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Qinwen Zheng 61¢ 61¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Set Handicap: Gurri (-1.5) vs Santamarta (+1.5) Gurri 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) Auger-Aliassime 50¢ 48¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Ugo Humbert 55¢ 55¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Max Alcala Gurri 74¢ 74¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Mensik 42¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Set Handicap: Alves (-1.5) vs Rivera (+1.5) Rivera 71¢ 69¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Nikola Bartunkova 32¢ 32¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Eala 64¢ 64¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Hynek Barton 51¢ 56¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+10%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Brandon Nakashima 62¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Valentova (+1.5) Valentova 60¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Hamad Medjedovic 48¢ 48¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Franco Agamenone 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 46¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Set Handicap: Giron (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Balshaw (-1.5) vs Sanchis (+1.5) Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Set Handicap: Kubka (-1.5) vs Iatcenko (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Martyna Kubka Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5) Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Set Handicap: Golubic (-1.5) vs Kenin (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$7 +172%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $7 −$1 -12%
Set Handicap: Kudermetova (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +39%
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Agut (+1.5) Jun 14 $21 +$25 +123%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $24 +$12 +52%
Set Handicap: Krueger (-1.5) vs Naef (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $24 +$18 +74%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Set Handicap: Krejcikova (-1.5) vs Montgomery (+1.5) Jun 14 $14 $0 -4%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $14 +$9 +62%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $19 +$10 +52%
Set Handicap: Sonmez (-1.5) vs Tararudee (+1.5) Jun 13 $16 +$18 +113%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $21 +$17 +82%
Set Handicap: Perricard (-1.5) vs Monday (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Set Handicap: Cina (-1.5) vs Daniel (+1.5) Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $38 +$10 +27%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $27 +$21 +76%
Set Handicap: Boulter (-1.5) vs Vekic (+1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $12 +$6 +53%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $30 +$9 +30%
Set Handicap: Knutson (-1.5) vs Kubka (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$2 +48%
Set Handicap: Bigun (-1.5) vs Grumet (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$1 +38%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Set Handicap: Kicker (-1.5) vs Coria (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 +28%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 12 $8 +$16 +196%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $9 +$7 +79%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $43 +$15 +36%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 12 $11 +$13 +112%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 12 $9 +$4 +50%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Set Handicap: Golubic (-1.5) vs Swan (+1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Sakkari (+1.5) BUY Zheng 40¢ $2 0m
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Fucsovics (+1.5) BUY Nakashima 41¢ $0 15m
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Franco Agamenone 50¢ $2 23m
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5) BUY Auger-Aliassime 49¢ $6 26m
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 58¢ $4 45m
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Franco Agamenone 51¢ $3 45m
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Fucsovics (+1.5) BUY Nakashima 41¢ $2 1h
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Cilic (+1.5) BUY Humbert 35¢ $3 1h
Set Handicap: Feldbausch (-1.5) vs Lokoli (+1.5) BUY Feldbausch 52¢ $3 1h
Set Handicap: Gurri (-1.5) vs Santamarta (+1.5) BUY Gurri 52¢ $11 1h
Set Handicap: Faria (-1.5) vs Echargui (+1.5) BUY Faria 60¢ $18 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 56¢ $3 1h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta BUY Max Alcala Gurri 74¢ $8 1h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli BUY Kilian Feldbausch 74¢ $4 1h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui BUY Jaime Faria 84¢ $24 1h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 73¢ $0 1h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 73¢ $4 1h
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) BUY Tien 58¢ $4 2h
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) BUY Tien 58¢ $2 2h
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 64¢ $3 2h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 61¢ $5 2h
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Valentova (+1.5) BUY Valentova 59¢ $3 2h
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) BUY Mensik 42¢ $1 2h
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Hynek Barton 51¢ $3 3h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 66¢ $3 3h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 54¢ $3 3h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 38¢ $6 3h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 73¢ $5 3h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 31¢ $4 3h
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Valentova (+1.5) BUY Valentova 61¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.19 · official $318.19 (match) · 3500 history records