Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdff5…ce8f crypto 194 markets active 5d ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-6%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%79W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$55
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$200
other 7% +$19
sports 2% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -46.4% -51.5% 25% 25% -40.9%
≤30d 37 +6.6% -3.6% 41% 41% -6.9%
≤90d 194 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 40% -16.2%
all 194 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 40% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 40% -16.2%
10% -19.1% 40% -24.2%
15% -26.9% 39% -31.6%
20% -34.0% 38% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses79 / 115
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)194 / 194
History coverage69d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 194 Trades
no open positions (90 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$15 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$6 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$3 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Iceland? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Iceland? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $13 +$8 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $12 −$12 -96%
Exact Score: China PR 0 - 0 Thailand? Jun 09 $3 +$26 +849%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $26 +$60 +234%
Exact Score: China PR 2 - 0 Thailand? Jun 09 $10 −$2 -21%
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 0 Thailand? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3AM ET Jun 08 $19 −$14 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2AM ET Jun 08 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET Jun 08 $47 +$52 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$30 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$8 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$18 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$7 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $15 +$15 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 2PM ET Apr 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 17 $7 −$6 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 13 $1 +$3 +338%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 11AM ET Apr 13 $13 −$13 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 10AM ET Apr 13 $5 +$12 +216%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$2 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 13 $6 +$4 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $41 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $16 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $14 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $8 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $20 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Iceland? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Iceland? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 7d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $13 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 459 history records