Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DF 0xdff4…a227 crypto 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate59%57W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$160
14 days+$160
30 days+$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -4.6% -13.7% 62% 58% +3.0%
≤30d 97 -5.8% -14.8% 59% 40% -5.5%
≤90d 97 -5.8% -14.8% 59% 40% -5.5%
all 97 -5.8% -14.8% 59% 40% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 40% -5.5%
10% -23.0% 22% -14.5%
15% -30.4% 9% -22.8%
20% -37.2% 5% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses57 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage29d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $77 +$42 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $154 +$70 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $178 −$79 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $77 +$57 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $129 +$58 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $103 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $51 −$18 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$21 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 03 $51 −$17 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 03 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 03 $78 −$24 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 03 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 03 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 03 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 03 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 03 $26 −$16 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 31 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 30 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 30 $51 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 30 $26 −$24 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 30 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 29 $26 −$8 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 29 $25 +$5 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 291 history records