Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdff3…531d other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$404 (+13%) realized +$369 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$113
14 days+$191
30 days+$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$383
sports 21% +$90
politics 11% +$81
crypto 10% −$165
world 7% −$8
finance 3% −$25
culture 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -24.7% -31.9% 38% 38% +18.5%
≤30d 15 -13.6% -21.8% 40% 40% +10.7%
≤90d 32 -4.9% -14.0% 50% 38% +3.0%
all 32 -4.9% -14.0% 50% 38% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 38% +3.0%
10% -22.2% 38% -6.9%
15% -29.7% 38% -15.9%
20% -36.6% 28% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$33 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$545
Realized+$369
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions8
Markets (closed)32 / 40
History coverage75d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 65¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 52¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 +$103 +102%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 21 $40 −$25 -63%
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? Jun 21 $31 −$17 -56%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$121 +119%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$105 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $132 +$9 +7%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $51 +$24 +47%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 16 $101 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $122 −$17 -14%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 15 $31 −$3 -11%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 15 $101 +$72 +71%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 15 $104 −$25 -24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $101 +$40 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $102 +$92 +91%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 15 $103 −$7 -7%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $15 +$15 +100%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $200 +$82 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 4d
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 SELL No 16¢ $15 4d
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 5d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 7d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 10d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $207 12d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $35 12d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 27d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 27d
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 BUY No 42¢ $40 34d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $102 36d
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 36d
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 36d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B SELL Tundra Esports 52¢ $30 39d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B BUY Tundra Esports 52¢ $30 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $545.30 · official $545.30 (match) · 72 history records