Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DF 0xdff2…2e27 sports 379 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$715 (+1%) realized +$715 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate40%152W / 226L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day35.3pace
Fees−$657est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,145
7 days+$407
14 days−$48
30 days+$654
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$1,039
other 29% +$1,055
crypto 0% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +81.7% +64.4% 45% 32% -6.6%
≤30d 120 +56.2% +41.3% 49% 32% -5.3%
≤90d 372 +24.7% +12.8% 41% 24% -8.5%
all 378 +24.0% +12.2% 40% 24% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.2% 24% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here +1.5% 14% -17.5%
15% -8.3% 10% -25.5%
20% -17.3% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$31 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$715
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses152 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$657
Open positions1
Markets (closed)378 / 379
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$190
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $49 +$2 +4%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$1 -16%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 $0 +11%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $12 +$27 +215%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $408 +$113 +28%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $898 +$145 +16%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $480 +$41 +8%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $7 $0 -3%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -10%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $3 $0 -16%
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 17 $2 $0 -15%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $83 −$75 -90%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 17 $105 +$5 +5%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $16 +$61 +385%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $50 +$49 +98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $227 −$4 -2%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 −$15 -24%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$20 -56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $114 −$41 -36%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $484 +$41 +8%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $500 −$500 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,500 −$214 -14%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $995 −$607 -61%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $145 +$7 +4%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $766 +$29 +4%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $33 +$4 +12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $96 +$17 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $115 +$17 +15%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $6 $0 -6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $520 +$87 +17%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $902 −$152 -17%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $704 −$106 -15%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $159 −$59 -37%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $485 +$36 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $925 −$53 -6%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $500 −$225 -45%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $27 +$12 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $14 +$37 +268%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $34 +$70 +209%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 14 $4 $0 -5%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $417 +$202 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 95¢ $21 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 95¢ $29 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 17¢ $4 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 20¢ $2 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 20¢ $2 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $38 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 31¢ $12 2h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 2h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 2h
England to score first vs. Croatia? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 99¢ $516 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $511 16h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 95¢ $10 16h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 91¢ $470 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $408 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $29 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $493 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $350 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $129 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $20 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $513 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $149 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $249 17h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.18 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records