Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:58:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DF 0xdff1…7f5c crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+4%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate81%26W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$10
other 18% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +5.0% -5.0% 81% 53% -3.9%
≤30d 32 +5.0% -5.0% 81% 53% -3.9%
≤90d 32 +5.0% -5.0% 81% 53% -3.9%
all 32 +5.0% -5.0% 81% 53% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 53% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 38% -13.1%
15% -22.4% 16% -21.5%
20% -30.0% 9% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses26 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +7%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $46 +$13 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $35 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +13%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +28%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $66 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 +$3 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$9 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records