Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:58:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdff1…0dde world 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$4
other 26% +$1
politics 10% +$1
sports 9% +$3
culture 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.6% -11.0% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -2.6% -11.8% 24% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 17 -2.6% -11.8% 24% 0% -10.3%
all 39 -0.8% -10.3% 26% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.9% 3% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage301d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -12%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $43 −$2 -5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $81 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $7 −$1 -9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -13%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $48 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Dec 05 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $11 +$4 +35%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 19 $9 $0 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $33 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $32 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $14 $0 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 28 $9 $0 -1%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $22 13m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 14m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $28 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $16 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $10 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $21 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $41 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $30 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $40 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $41 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $43 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $47 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $46 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.57 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records