Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DF 0xdff0…0ff5 sports 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$390 (+5%) realized +$390 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate81%72W / 17L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day45.2pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$1,069
other 23% +$95
world 2% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +20.7% +9.2% 81% 61% +5.2%
≤30d 89 +20.7% +9.2% 81% 61% +5.2%
≤90d 89 +20.7% +9.2% 81% 61% +5.2%
all 89 +20.7% +9.2% 81% 61% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.2% 61% +5.2%
10% ← realistic here -1.2% 37% -4.9%
15% -10.8% 28% -14.1%
20% -19.5% 18% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$32 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$390
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses72 / 17
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 115
History coverage6d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day45.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 +$43 +86%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $206 +$94 +46%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $329 +$71 +22%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $86 +$14 +16%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $94 +$6 +6%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $256 +$44 +17%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $145 −$143 -99%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half Jun 28 $20 +$39 +199%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $23 −$22 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026- Jun 28 $49 +$13 +27%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $83 +$17 +20%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $92 +$8 +8%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $83 +$14 +17%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $59 +$29 +49%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $187 +$36 +19%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $49 +$26 +54%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $77 +$23 +31%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $46 +$4 +9%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $37 +$13 +35%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $38 +$5 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $129 +$21 +16%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $46 +$4 +10%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$19 +62%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 26 $30 +$44 +147%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams Jun 26 $20 +$33 +165%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $98 +$26 +27%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $183 +$17 +10%
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $89 +$11 +12%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $46 −$21 -47%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $92 $0 +0%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$24 +80%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $41 +$4 +11%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $32 $0 -1%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $30 −$2 -6%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $42 −$14 -33%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Jun 26 $51 +$73 +144%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score AND Tunisia vs. Netherlan Jun 26 $20 +$61 +307%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U Jun 25 $51 +$110 +216%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $36 +$14 +39%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $36 +$14 +39%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $13 +$2 +14%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$82 +161%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$58 +57%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $91 +$9 +10%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U Jun 25 $50 +$9 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 86¢ $52 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 87¢ $80 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 87¢ $7 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $47 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $51 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 78¢ $79 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $31 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $26 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $7 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $20 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $86 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $70 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $16 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $86 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 308 history records