Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdfed…73b1
sports · 125 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$6 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$55
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses23 / 101
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage150d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 1 History 124 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $53 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 12 $52 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 12 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 12 $209 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 12 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $116 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 12 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 12 $107 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 12 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 12 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 11 $3 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 11 $116 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February? Feb 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 11 $78 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 11 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 11 $7 $0 -2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 11 $58 −$1 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 03 $61 $0 -0%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Feb 03 $61 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 1AM ET Feb 03 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 8PM ET Feb 03 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 8PM ET Feb 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 03 $75 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 5PM ET Feb 03 $0 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 28% −$2
other 26% −$3
politics 18% −$1
crypto 11% $0
world 6% $0
economics 6% $0
culture 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $55 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $51 14d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $51 14d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $49 27d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $49 30d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $59 121d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $59 121d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $54 121d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $54 121d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $27 121d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 121d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 121d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $18 121d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 121d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $9 121d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 92¢ $28 121d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $59 121d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $59 121d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $52 121d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $52 121d
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 121d
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 121d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 121d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $53 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $52 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $52 121d
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 121d
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 121d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 121d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
all 124 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.63 · official $54.63 (match) · 452 history records