Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdfed…75f8 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 649d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$101 (-8%) realized −$102 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$100
politics 20% −$199
world 2% +$1
sports 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +32.6% +19.9% 56% 56% -2.8%
≤30d 9 +32.6% +19.9% 56% 56% -2.8%
≤90d 9 +32.6% +19.9% 56% 56% -2.8%
all 13 +23.3% +11.6% 54% 54% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.6% 54% -15.9%
10% +0.9% 46% -24.0%
15% -8.9% 46% -31.3%
20% -17.8% 46% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$85 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

649d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage649d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $60 +$84 +140%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$45 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $142 −$139 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $172 −$9 -5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $136 −$102 -75%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$83 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $112 +$109 +98%
Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first? Oct 28 $29 +$35 +118%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 05 $250 −$199 -80%
49ers vs. Patriots Nov 05 $15 −$12 -80%
Will Tottenham beat Manchester United? Sep 29 $60 +$42 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $60 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 39h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 52¢ $63 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 52¢ $63 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $15 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 46¢ $36 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $38 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $37 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $31 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $31 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $19 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $22 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $32 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $55 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $235 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $221 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.68 · official $30.68 (match) · 47 history records