Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DF 0xdfe9…7af9 sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$95 (+7%) realized +$145 · open −$50
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$198
14 days+$198
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$76
other 40% +$127
crypto 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +3.5% -6.4% 69% 69% +18.2%
≤30d 13 +3.5% -6.4% 69% 69% +18.2%
≤90d 30 -3.7% -12.9% 57% 53% -2.9%
all 30 -3.7% -12.9% 57% 53% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 53% -2.9%
10% -21.2% 43% -12.1%
15% -28.8% 33% -20.6%
20% -35.8% 20% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$36 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$145
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage60d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $136 $137 +$1 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Michele Ribecai 57¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $18 +$3 +14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $54 +$16 +29%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $75 −$74 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $80 +$30 +38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $60 +$24 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $107 +$146 +137%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $24 −$24 -99%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Jun 17 $49 +$25 +50%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$3 +24%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $111 +$100 +90%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Sabres vs. Bruins Apr 23 $50 −$49 -99%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 22 $95 −$93 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $82 +$13 +16%
Madrid Open: Panna Udvardy vs Kimberly Birrell Apr 22 $18 −$18 -100%
ELH: Trinec vs. Dynamo Pardubice Apr 22 $22 +$20 +90%
Madrid Open: Tomas Machac vs Francisco Comesana Apr 22 $27 +$13 +48%
Madrid Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marin Cilic Apr 22 $32 +$45 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +9%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dusan Lajovic vs Matteo Arnaldi Apr 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Rocha vs Choinski Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Shymkent: Bekkhan Atlangeriev vs Viktor Durasovic Apr 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 +12%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 22 $30 +$42 +140%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Elmer Moeller Apr 21 $25 +$73 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta BUY Michele Ribecai 57¢ $51 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Marie Bouzkova 87¢ $18 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $11 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $125 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $25 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $54 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 25h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 72¢ $44 28h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 72¢ $35 28h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $49 40h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 40h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $24 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $25 45h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton BUY Facundo Acosta 66¢ $49 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $60 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $57 2d
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $11 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $111 2d
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes $50 56d
Sabres vs. Bruins BUY Bruins 52¢ $50 56d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Penguins 52¢ $50 57d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Penguins 51¢ $45 57d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 57d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 86¢ $82 57d
ELH: Trinec vs. Dynamo Pardubice SELL Trinec 100¢ $42 57d
Madrid Open: Tomas Machac vs Francisco Comesana SELL Tomas Machac 100¢ $40 57d
Madrid Open: Tomas Machac vs Francisco Comesana BUY Tomas Machac 67¢ $27 58d
Madrid Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marin Cilic SELL Marin Cilic 100¢ $77 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.37 · official $186.38 (match) · 62 history records