Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfe8…67d4 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,350 (-15%) realized −$1,348 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$1,160
14 days−$1,573
30 days−$1,573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$770
sports 44% −$702
crypto 1% −$53
world 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -38.6% -44.4% 29% 29% -24.7%
≤30d 30 +22.0% +10.4% 37% 37% -26.1%
≤90d 30 +22.0% +10.4% 37% 37% -26.1%
all 30 +22.0% +10.4% 37% 37% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.4% 37% -26.1%
10% -0.1% 30% -33.1%
15% -9.8% 27% -39.6%
20% -18.6% 23% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +88% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$254 vs −$230 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$1,348
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage9d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $150 −$145 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $350 −$341 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $308 +$305 +99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $439 +$356 +81%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $408 −$400 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $243 +$779 +321%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $225 −$131 -58%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $217 −$210 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $341 −$330 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $227 −$220 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $744 +$256 +34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $82 −$79 -96%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $286 −$100 -35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $766 +$372 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $477 +$96 +20%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $204 +$129 +63%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $568 +$83 +15%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$350 +1405%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $991 −$865 -87%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$38 +246%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$34 +95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $62 −$53 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $100 4h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 4h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $150 7h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $350 7h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $308 30h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 55¢ $439 35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 35h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $52 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $52 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 67¢ $408 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $94 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $225 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $243 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $217 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $341 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $227 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,024 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $744 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $82 5d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 31¢ $186 6d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $286 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $766 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $477 6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $204 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $568 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $126 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $25 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.23 · official $46.23 (match) · 49 history records