Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfe7…6147 other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$11
politics 23% −$5
sports 12% −$19
crypto 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 69 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 108 -3.4% -12.6% 13% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 5% -9.7%
10% -21.0% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.6% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 94
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage132d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $385 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 19 $164 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $157 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $190 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $205 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 18 $186 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $376 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $164 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $203 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $353 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 16 $164 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $177 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $171 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Apr 15 $161 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $183 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $226 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $414 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $200 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $226 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $199 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 12 $175 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $205 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $389 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 10 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $47 $0 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $135 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $374 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $179 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $150 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $142 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $165 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $138 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $192 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 03 $131 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $354 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $190 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $180 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $193 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $308 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $139 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 14d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $203 16d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $203 31d
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $164 33d
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $164 37d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $157 38d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $157 39d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $37 53d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $190 62d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $190 63d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 63d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 63d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $186 63d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $186 63d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $207 63d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $207 63d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $169 63d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $169 64d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $164 64d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $164 64d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $203 64d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $203 65d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $183 65d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $183 65d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $166 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 316 history records