Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfe7…11f5 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +94% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +75% what you keep after slip
Net edge+75%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$90
politics 33% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+75.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -35.0% -41.2% 40% 40% -53.2%
≤30d 5 -35.0% -41.2% 40% 40% -53.2%
≤90d 7 +93.7% +75.2% 43% 43% -38.7%
all 7 +93.7% +75.2% 43% 43% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +75.2% 43% -38.7%
10% +58.5% 29% -44.6%
15% +43.1% 29% -49.9%
20% +29.1% 29% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +94% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$48 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage58d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $82 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$24 -48%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $9 +$83 +931%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 29 $83 −$83 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam SELL Yes 92¢ $92 53d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 10¢ $3 57d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 10¢ $1 57d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 10¢ $1 57d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 14¢ $7 57d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 14¢ $9 57d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 14¢ $0 57d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 14¢ $1 57d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 14¢ $1 57d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 14¢ $6 57d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 14¢ $1 57d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 14¢ $1 57d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 14¢ $1 57d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 14¢ $1 57d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 18¢ $9 57d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 19¢ $19 57d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam BUY Yes 9¢ $3 57d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam BUY Yes 9¢ $2 57d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam BUY Yes 9¢ $4 57d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 22¢ $22 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records