Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DF 0xdfe1…f2b8 crypto 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+3%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate98%87W / 2L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +3.5% -6.3% 98% 17% -6.6%
≤30d 89 +3.5% -6.3% 98% 17% -6.6%
≤90d 89 +3.5% -6.3% 98% 17% -6.6%
all 89 +3.5% -6.3% 98% 17% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 17% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 6% -15.6%
15% -23.5% 0% -23.7%
20% -31.0% 0% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses87 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage4d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 29 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $14 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.78 · official $25.78 (match) · 182 history records