Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:56:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdfe0…4bc8 sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,004 (-5%) realized −$1,004 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate86%19W / 3L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$917per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,075
tech 5% +$1
other 5% +$1
culture 4% +$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 16 +9.7% -0.8% 94% 50% -4.5%
all 22 -0.6% -10.1% 86% 41% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 41% -14.2%
10% -18.7% 27% -22.4%
15% -26.5% 9% -29.9%
20% -33.7% 5% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,251) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$1,297 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$1,004
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses19 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage105d
Avg bet$917
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $198 $198 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in May 2026? Jun 02 $102 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026? Jun 02 $104 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $234 +$171 +73%
Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $224 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $1,678 −$1,671 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 20 $1,432 +$245 +17%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 17 $1,251 +$181 +14%
LoL: GIANTX vs Shifters - Game 1 Winner Apr 14 $958 +$293 +31%
Will dola-seed-2.0-preview have the best AI model on April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $957 +$1 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Apr 06 $1,959 +$568 +29%
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 04 $1,519 +$440 +29%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Apr 03 $1,028 +$491 +48%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 03 $1,008 +$20 +2%
Raptors vs. Pistons Apr 01 $1,007 +$1 +0%
Wizards vs. Lakers Mar 31 $909 +$98 +11%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 31 $906 +$3 +0%
Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the top global Netflix show this week Mar 29 $533 +$1 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 21 $1,273 −$1,273 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 21 $977 +$296 +30%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $948 −$948 -100%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 19 $938 +$9 +1%
Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 7.5m? Mar 18 $937 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $198 2h
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 30d
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $104 30d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 57¢ $234 35d
Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 100¢ $224 48d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 87¢ $1,678 68d
LoL: Team Heretics vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Movistar KOI 85¢ $1,432 70d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 87¢ $1,251 73d
LoL: GIANTX vs Shifters - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 76¢ $958 76d
Will dola-seed-2.0-preview have the best AI model on April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $957 82d
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 77¢ $1,959 84d
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 77¢ $1,519 85d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 67¢ $1,028 86d
Timberwolves vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 98¢ $1,008 86d
Raptors vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $1,007 88d
Wizards vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 90¢ $909 89d
Clippers vs. Bucks BUY Clippers 100¢ $906 90d
Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the top global Netflix show this week BUY No 100¢ $533 96d
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 84¢ $1,273 99d
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 77¢ $977 100d
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 86¢ $948 100d
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 99¢ $938 101d
Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 7.5m? BUY No 100¢ $937 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.00 · official $198.00 (match) · 43 history records