Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfdd…4762 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$139 (-31%) realized −$120 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$138
14 days−$178
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$177
sports 22% +$1
crypto 6% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-64.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -69.6% -72.5% 17% 17% -77.3%
≤30d 9 -60.8% -64.5% 22% 22% -53.2%
≤90d 9 -60.8% -64.5% 22% 22% -53.2%
all 9 -60.8% -64.5% 22% 22% -53.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.5% 22% -53.2%
10% -67.9% 22% -57.7%
15% -71.0% 22% -61.8%
20% -73.9% 22% -65.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$28 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$120
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage18d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 52¢ $59 $43 −$16 (-26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $32 $30 −$1 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $33 $26 −$6 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$21 +82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $59 +$41 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $60 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $20 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $20 13h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $20 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $46 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $25 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $49 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $32 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 6d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 9d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 9d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.98 · official $141.35 · 22 history records