Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:38:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfdc…0c65 sports 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$364 (-18%) realized −$422 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate57%50W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$97
14 days−$120
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$57
other 10% −$202
weather 5% −$49
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 50% -38.5%
≤30d 7 +31.9% +19.3% 71% 71% -23.1%
≤90d 27 -17.5% -25.4% 52% 41% -25.0%
all 87 -15.9% -23.9% 57% 32% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 32% -26.2%
10% -31.2% 22% -33.3%
15% -37.9% 16% -39.7%
20% -43.9% 14% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$23 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$422
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses50 / 37
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage141d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 100¢ $63 $121 +$58 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $205 −$202 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$105 +104%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $60 +$76 +128%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $33 +$26 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $17 +$15 +89%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 27 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma May 07 $2 +$2 +105%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma May 06 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 24 Apr 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ap Apr 21 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ap Apr 21 $3 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 19 Apr 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on April 17 Apr 17 $5 −$4 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on April 17 Apr 17 $5 +$4 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 53°F or below on April 18? Apr 17 $2 −$1 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 18 Apr 16 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ap Apr 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 10 Apr 16 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Apri Apr 10 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 8? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 2? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 11? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 10? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 2? Apr 03 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 2? Mar 30 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 68°F or higher on March 25? Mar 24 $23 −$14 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 23 Mar 23 $5 +$1 +19%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Mar 23 $5 $0 +9%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $16 −$12 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 21 Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $21 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 21 Mar 23 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 3 Winner Mar 23 $29 −$19 -64%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Mar 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 20? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Mar 23 $85 −$80 -94%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Mar 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 21 Mar 21 $3 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 21 Mar 21 $3 $0 +10%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Feb 28 $41 $0 +1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Feb 23 $20 +$3 +15%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Feb 23 $42 +$4 +9%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 21 $1 $0 -0%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winner Feb 13 $3 +$2 +58%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner Feb 11 $20 +$3 +16%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Feb 11 $24 +$4 +16%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 11 $19 +$4 +24%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Feb 11 $2 +$3 +160%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $64 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $205 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $0 6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $98 6d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $100 7d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $136 7d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $60 8d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 25d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $33 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 25d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $17 25d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma SELL Yes 28¢ $4 28d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma SELL Yes 28¢ $2 28d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma SELL Yes 28¢ $0 28d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma BUY Yes 22¢ $5 29d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma BUY Yes 7¢ $5 40d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma SELL Yes 46¢ $4 48d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma BUY Yes 21¢ $2 48d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma SELL Yes 36¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma SELL Yes 36¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma BUY Yes 31¢ $2 49d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 24 BUY Yes 20¢ $5 63d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ap SELL Yes 1¢ $1 64d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ap SELL Yes 21¢ $4 64d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ap BUY Yes 3¢ $2 65d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ap BUY Yes 14¢ $3 65d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 19 BUY Yes 9¢ $5 67d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on April 17 SELL Yes 16¢ $1 68d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on April 17 BUY Yes 15¢ $5 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.98 · official $120.98 (match) · 265 history records