Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DF 0xdfda…4fe6 sports 173 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$64,228 (-9%) realized −$65,069 · open +$841
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%92W / 72L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,126per market
Trades / day68.2pace
Fees−$2,521est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$25,954now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$86,361
sports 28% −$12,986
crypto 1% −$7,855
world 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -19.6% -27.2% 47% 35% -26.7%
≤30d 130 +2.8% -7.0% 59% 45% -22.1%
≤90d 164 +11.9% +1.2% 56% 41% -23.6%
all 164 +11.9% +1.2% 56% 41% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.2% 41% -23.6%
10% -8.5% 37% -30.9%
15% ← realistic here -17.3% 34% -37.6%
20% -25.4% 31% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,980) neutral
Persistence
early +59% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
17.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,072 vs −$2,910 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$25,954
Realized−$65,069
Unrealized+$841
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses92 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$2,521
Open positions9
Markets (closed)164 / 173
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$4,126
Trades / day68.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? No 92¢ 96¢ $23,329 $24,185 +$856 (+4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 65¢ 64¢ $507 $495 −$12 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $447 $437 −$11 (-2%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $425 $430 +$5 (+1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 38¢ $176 $173 −$2 (-1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 43¢ 44¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $55 $58 +$2 (+4%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 55¢ 56¢ $54 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States leading at halftime? Jun 26 $461 +$286 +62%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $8,133 −$8,133 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $872 +$253 +29%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $57 +$53 +93%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 26 $773 +$15 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $48 −$47 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 26 $609 +$261 +43%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $163 +$282 +172%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $33,669 −$33,667 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $144 −$143 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $9 $0 +0%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $136 −$136 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $190 −$186 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $431 +$875 +203%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $213 +$285 +134%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $1,821 −$1,774 -97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $67 +$53 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25,639 +$3,281 +13%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 25 $458 +$272 +60%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $432 +$361 +84%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $490 −$479 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $207 +$278 +134%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $1,076 +$1 +0%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $14 $0 +0%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $12 $0 +1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $996 −$843 -85%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 24 $2 $0 +4%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $18 +$3 +18%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $280 −$276 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $433 −$433 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $187 −$183 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $466 +$274 +59%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $536 +$80 +15%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $234 +$278 +119%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1,993 +$2,989 +150%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $306 +$282 +92%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $29,987 +$3,097 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $734 +$116 +16%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $4,985 +$15 +0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $968 +$32 +3%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $186 −$186 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $1,095 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $82 −$81 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $5,184 −$5,184 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $184 +$86 +47%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $148 −$148 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $287 −$282 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $9 2m
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 7m
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $39 15m
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $376 23m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $55 23m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $94 24m
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals SELL No 95¢ $789 47m
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $57 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 47¢ $48 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $179 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $512 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $452 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY No 93¢ $80 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY No 93¢ $266 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY No 93¢ $13 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY No 93¢ $40 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY No 93¢ $13 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY No 93¢ $66 6h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY No 93¢ $133 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $710 13h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $9 13h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $45 13h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $6 13h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $4 13h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $44 14h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $17 14h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $217 14h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $31 14h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $446 14h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $954 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,953.75 · official $25,953.75 (match) · 3500 history records