Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

DF 0xdfd8…c26e sports 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,370 (-24%) realized −$1,368 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip

Net edge-35%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate55%12W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$248per market

Trades / day12.2pace

Fees−$18est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-29.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-22.4%	-29.8%	55%	36%	-32.8%
≤30d	22	-22.4%	-29.8%	55%	36%	-32.8%
≤90d	22	-22.4%	-29.8%	55%	36%	-32.8%
all	22	-22.4%	-29.8%	55%	36%	-32.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-29.8%	36%	-32.8%
10%	-36.5%	14%	-39.3%
15%	-42.7%	9%	-45.1%
20%	-48.3%	0%	-50.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -22% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -24% → late -21% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$44 vs −$199 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.26 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$8

Realized−$1,368

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses12 / 10

Est. fees paid−$18

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage3d

Avg bet$248

Trades / day12.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Vitinha: 1+ goals	Yes	16¢	12¢	$10	$8	−$2 (-24%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$9	+$1	+14%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$39	−$30	-77%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$80	−$41	-51%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$133	+$13	+9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$67	+$1	+1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$57	+$9	+16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$39	+$19	+48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$116	−$48	-41%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$59	+$28	+48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1,412	−$1,408	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$201	−$200	-99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$1,238	+$264	+21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$100	+$10	+10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1,124	+$66	+6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$119	−$69	-58%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$223	+$33	+15%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$159	+$23	+14%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$55	−$39	-70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$222	+$62	+28%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$81	−$79	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$109	−$28	-26%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Vitinha: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	16¢	$11	11m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$11	13m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	87¢	$9	43m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	11¢	$9	43m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	45¢	$39	59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	45¢	$39	1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	90¢	$80	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$66	5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	63¢	$66	5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$67	5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	99¢	$67	6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	81¢	$67	7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	69¢	$57	8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$39	26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	74¢	$18	28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	76¢	$11	28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	26¢	$29	28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	75¢	$87	29h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$87	29h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	67¢	$59	30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	93¢	$50	32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$1,412	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Ilia Topuria	80¢	$201	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	82¢	$1,238	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,190	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	36¢	$49	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	84¢	$119	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	91¢	$100	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$1,124	3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	99¢	$255	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.84 · official $7.84 (match) · 47 history records