Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfd8…ed9a crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$36 (-24%) realized −$33 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$32
world 10% −$1
other 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -34.7% -40.9% 29% 29% -30.7%
≤30d 24 -34.7% -40.9% 29% 29% -30.7%
≤90d 24 -34.7% -40.9% 29% 29% -30.7%
all 24 -34.7% -40.9% 29% 29% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.9% 29% -30.7%
10% ← realistic here -46.6% 29% -37.4%
15% -51.8% 29% -43.4%
20% -56.5% 29% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$12 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$10 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 51 history records