Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfd7…58b7 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+6%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate36%19W / 34L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 23% −$1
other 19% +$25
politics 18% $0
crypto 16% $0
sports 14% $0
economics 7% +$17
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -8.9% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 6 +2.9% -6.9% 67% 17% -8.6%
≤90d 9 +3.5% -6.3% 67% 22% -9.7%
all 53 +9.5% -0.9% 36% 9% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 9% -4.4%
10% -10.4% 6% -13.6%
15% -19.0% 4% -21.9%
20% -27.0% 2% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×5.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.72 per $1 lost it wins $8.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses19 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage273d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $29 $0 +1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $31 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $28 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $11 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $25 −$2 -9%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 18 $3 +$1 +23%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $48 +$19 +41%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Nov 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Nov 04 $20 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 31 $29 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 30 $29 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? Oct 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 26 $29 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Oct 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? Oct 23 $2 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Oct 05 $5 +$25 +517%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $12 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Sep 27 $12 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 26 $12 $0 -2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 24 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $29 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $21 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $8 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $29 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $8 12h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $20 12h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $3 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $5 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $8 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $31 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $31 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $29 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $28 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 30d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $4 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $4 32d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $18 32d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 32d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $25 33d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 156d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records