Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DF 0xdfd5…b5f8 crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$11
other 27% −$3
crypto 4% +$2
politics 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 31 -1.0% -10.4% 45% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage540d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in January? Feb 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.30 in September? Oct 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 03 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in June? Jul 07 $22 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 16 $1,509 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Mar 05 $4,097 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 05 $24 +$1 +4%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Feb 16 $20 $0 -0%
2025 January hottest on record? Feb 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Jan 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Jan 08 $12 $0 -4%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 07 $40 −$7 -17%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 07 $43 $0 +0%
Yoon arrested by Friday? Jan 06 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Jan 06 $42 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration spee Jan 06 $12 −$1 -12%
Election certified on January 6? Jan 05 $43 −$1 -2%
Starmer out before July? Jan 05 $19 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 37d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in January? BUY No 100¢ $23 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $21 184d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $18 244d
Will XRP reach $3.30 in September? BUY No 100¢ $29 272d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $25 303d
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? BUY No 96¢ $19 336d
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in June? BUY No 98¢ $22 365d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 397d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $19 413d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $19 417d
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $20 429d
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 433d
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 433d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 434d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 434d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,508 438d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,509 438d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? BUY No 99¢ $20 459d
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $4,093 480d
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $4,097 480d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 96¢ $24 486d
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $20 497d
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $20 503d
2025 January hottest on record? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 507d
2025 January hottest on record? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 513d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $26 517d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $26 523d
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $17 525d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.79 · official $28.79 (match) · 63 history records