Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdfd4…7a38 sports 310 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$501 (-4%) realized −$500 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%173W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$111est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$201
7 days−$192
14 days−$214
30 days−$581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$400
weather 11% −$128
other 1% $0
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -16.7% -24.7% 64% 50% -21.7%
≤30d 140 -19.6% -27.2% 56% 46% -26.5%
≤90d 302 -13.2% -21.5% 57% 43% -12.9%
all 302 -13.2% -21.5% 57% 43% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 43% -12.9%
10% -29.0% 27% -21.3%
15% -35.9% 16% -28.9%
20% -42.2% 9% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$500
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses173 / 129
Est. fees paid−$111
Open positions8
Markets (closed)302 / 310
History coverage51d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+40%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $82 +$17 +21%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $209 −$209 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $24 +$6 +27%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $8 +$1 +18%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $27 +$3 +10%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $7 +$2 +21%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $9 +$1 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $36 $0 +1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $21 +$9 +41%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $45 +$5 +10%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +12%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $70 +$27 +39%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $85 +$10 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $271 +$28 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $161 −$70 -44%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $72 −$1 -2%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $24 −$7 -30%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $89 +$11 +12%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $7 −$3 -40%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $18 +$2 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +31%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 +$2 +25%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$4 +42%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$2 +25%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$2 +25%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$2 +25%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$2 +25%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $18 +$2 +11%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$1 +17%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $9 +$4 +44%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 8? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $30 57m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $9 57m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $50 58m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 59m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $82 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 95¢ $10 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $24 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $8 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $30 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $9 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 95¢ $10 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 90¢ $27 28h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 74¢ $7 28h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 89¢ $9 28h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $18 47h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $37 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 98¢ $29 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $50 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $45 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $21 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $36 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $9 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 97¢ $97 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 95¢ $95 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 70¢ $70 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 85¢ $58 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 85¢ $27 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 60¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.16 · official $82.16 (match) · 1006 history records