Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfd4…91f7 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-6%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$19
sports 21% −$13
other 7% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -2.9% -12.2% 28% 28% -21.7%
≤30d 18 -2.9% -12.2% 28% 28% -21.7%
≤90d 18 -2.9% -12.2% 28% 28% -21.7%
all 18 -2.9% -12.2% 28% 28% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 28% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 22% -29.2%
15% -28.3% 17% -36.0%
20% -35.3% 17% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$9 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$15 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$31 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$23 +541%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$4 -38%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $10 −$7 -74%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$6 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $4 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 34¢ $6 5h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 15¢ $3 5h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 55¢ $10 6h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 53¢ $10 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 17¢ $4 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 38¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 59¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.19 (match) · 43 history records