Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfd4…458e sports 6 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-98%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$7
other 30% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 26h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 20¢ $1 45h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 20¢ $1 45h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $2 45h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $3 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records