Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DF 0xdfcf…e106 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+13%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate70%28W / 12L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$14
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +11.5% +0.8% 70% 65% +3.6%
≤30d 40 +11.5% +0.8% 70% 65% +3.6%
≤90d 40 +11.5% +0.8% 70% 65% +3.6%
all 40 +11.5% +0.8% 70% 65% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.8% 65% +3.6%
10% ← realistic here -8.8% 55% -6.3%
15% -17.6% 45% -15.4%
20% -25.7% 42% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses28 / 12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 91¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 61¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.68 · official $4.68 (match) · 99 history records