Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DF 0xdfc9…7552 sports 141 markets active 0h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44,451 (+11%) realized +$44,374 · open +$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%80W / 59L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$2,777per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$754est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$586now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$1,687
14 days+$5,170
30 days+$5,224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$59,160
sports 17% +$4,233
crypto 11% −$9,984
world 3% −$10,014
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +3.3% -6.5% 52% 52% +8.3%
≤30d 78 +12.7% +2.0% 56% 56% +7.5%
≤90d 100 +8.2% -2.1% 56% 56% +4.7%
all 139 +7.9% -2.4% 58% 52% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 52% +1.2%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 51% -8.5%
15% -20.2% 47% -17.3%
20% -28.1% 34% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$2,304) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,513 vs −$1,317 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$586
Realized+$44,374
Unrealized+$77
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses80 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$754
Open positions2
Markets (closed)139 / 141
History coverage248d
Avg bet$2,777
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 54¢ 98¢ $324 $585 +$261 (+81%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner FURIA 13¢ 0¢ $185 $1 −$184 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $292 −$15 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $900 −$144 -16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $117 −$117 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $566 +$376 +66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $526 −$340 -65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $658 +$524 +80%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $334 +$266 +79%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $261 −$258 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $309 −$305 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $497 +$503 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $364 +$236 +65%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $250 −$246 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $280 −$276 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $234 −$234 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $268 +$332 +124%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $304 +$296 +97%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $372 −$177 -48%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $346 +$254 +73%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $402 +$198 +49%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $145 −$145 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $328 +$272 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $352 −$158 -45%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $726 +$274 +38%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $256 +$344 +134%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $370 +$230 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $793 −$65 -8%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $371 +$212 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $163 −$162 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $213 −$210 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $298 −$294 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 14 $211 +$301 +143%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $240 +$360 +150%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $115 +$385 +334%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $267 +$333 +124%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $196 −$85 -43%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $178 −$56 -32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $224 +$288 +129%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $455 −$448 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $232 −$228 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $400 −$396 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $304 −$300 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $304 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $454 −$450 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $125 +$375 +300%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $352 +$248 +70%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $420 +$480 +114%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $352 +$248 +70%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $394 +$206 +52%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $370 −$366 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $491 +$183 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL FURIA 47¢ $278 25m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $328 26m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 35¢ $39 37m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 35¢ $2 37m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 35¢ $300 37m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 35¢ $9 37m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 21¢ $73 42m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 21¢ $3 42m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 21¢ $42 42m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 21¢ $5 42m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 21¢ $30 43m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 21¢ $30 43m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 21¢ $27 43m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 48¢ $292 43m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 12¢ $120 45m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $215 47m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 6¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 9¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $128 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 41¢ $403 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 39¢ $67 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 39¢ $323 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 17¢ $174 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 25¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 25¢ $62 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 25¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 25¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 28¢ $172 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 53¢ $56 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 53¢ $56 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $585.70 · official $567.70 · 1281 history records