Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:52:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DF 0xdfc8…bb09 crypto 405 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$362 (+9%) realized +$362 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%199W / 204L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$4
14 days+$252
30 days+$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$274
other 0% −$1
sports 0% −$5
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -24.1% -31.3% 42% 36% -9.9%
≤30d 400 -11.3% -19.8% 49% 39% -3.1%
≤90d 403 -11.1% -19.6% 49% 39% -3.1%
all 403 -11.1% -19.6% 49% 39% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 39% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 34% -12.4%
15% -34.3% 31% -20.9%
20% -40.7% 26% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$362
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses199 / 204
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)403 / 405
History coverage37d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 403 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Up 90¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $164 +$100 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.54 · official $15.54 (match) · 1147 history records