Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfc3…bd5a other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$3
other 26% +$1
politics 9% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 3% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -3.4% -12.6% 40% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 10 -3.4% -12.6% 40% 0% -10.3%
all 35 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage466d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $25 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $44 −$2 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $11 −$2 -16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian E Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $14 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $3 $0 -13%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $11 $0 -3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $1 $0 -15%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 09 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $16 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $23 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $39 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $38 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $18 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $19 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $25 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $36 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $8 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $28 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $3 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $33 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $39 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $40 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $18 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $17 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $36 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records