Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfc2…895f crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +1.8% -7.9% 87% 53% -17.6%
≤30d 15 +1.8% -7.9% 87% 53% -17.6%
≤90d 15 +1.8% -7.9% 87% 53% -17.6%
all 15 +1.8% -7.9% 87% 53% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 53% -17.6%
10% -16.7% 27% -25.5%
15% -24.8% 13% -32.7%
20% -32.2% 7% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$25 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records