Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:57:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfc0…3ace sports 286 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,098 (-6%) realized −$1,114 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%139W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$92
14 days−$92
30 days−$764
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$1,882
other 14% +$870
politics 4% $0
culture 1% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 50% -30.0%
≤30d 6 -39.4% -45.1% 33% 33% -38.9%
≤90d 23 -14.9% -23.0% 52% 43% -21.4%
all 284 -9.0% -17.7% 49% 48% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 48% -15.8%
10% -25.5% 43% -23.8%
15% -32.7% 40% -31.2%
20% -39.3% 36% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$41 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$1,114
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses139 / 145
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions2
Markets (closed)284 / 286
History coverage171d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 56¢ $183 $199 +$16 (+9%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $131 +$55 +42%
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $276 −$147 -53%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $854 −$843 -99%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 01 $270 −$268 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $109 −$108 -99%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? May 26 $726 +$547 +75%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $100 +$18 +18%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season? May 20 $20 +$2 +9%
NBA: SGA Award Parlay May 20 $40 −$20 -51%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 20 $20 −$5 -25%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 12 $219 −$111 -50%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 12 $439 +$158 +36%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $508 −$468 -92%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 May 03 $51 −$50 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $40 +$24 +59%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $455 +$286 +63%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 02 $500 +$257 +51%
Spread: Celtics (-11.5) Apr 29 $15 −$15 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $10 +$5 +52%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5 Apr 28 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 27 $140 +$58 +41%
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 227.5 Mar 04 $10 +$10 +96%
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5 Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5 Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. 76ers: O/U 231.5 Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Warriors Mar 03 $10 +$17 +169%
Thunder vs. Bulls: O/U 229.5 Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Nets vs. Heat: O/U 227.5 Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5 Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Mavericks vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5 Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5 Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Nuggets vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5 Mar 03 $10 +$10 +96%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Mar 03 $49 +$11 +23%
Rockets vs. Wizards: O/U 224.5 Mar 03 $10 +$9 +88%
Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5 Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 215.5 Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Mar 02 $15 +$17 +117%
Pelicans vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5 Mar 02 $20 +$18 +90%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5 Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5 Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5 Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5 Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 224.5 Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5 Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5 Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Nets: O/U 222.5 Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5 Mar 01 $20 +$16 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $185 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $131 22h
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 17¢ $130 22h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $705 21d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $706 21d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 63¢ $245 23d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 23d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 62¢ $14 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $89 27d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $25 27d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 27d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $3 27d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $4 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $5 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $4 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $5 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $4 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $5 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $4 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $208 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $192 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $4 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $4 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $6 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $3 28d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $5 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.82 · official $198.85 (match) · 595 history records