Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdfc0…d0d0 crypto 926 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,809 (-5%) realized −$2,831 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate75%693W / 232L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day89.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$58
14 days−$172
30 days−$2,902
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,914
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 50% +17.1%
≤30d 774 -7.3% -16.1% 71% 38% -14.9%
≤90d 925 -3.6% -12.7% 75% 43% -12.5%
all 925 -3.6% -12.7% 75% 43% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 43% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 14% -20.9%
15% -28.7% 12% -28.5%
20% -35.7% 11% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$40 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$2,831
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses693 / 232
Open positions1
Markets (closed)925 / 926
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$63
Trades / day89.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 925 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Up 35¢ 52¢ $43 $65 +$22 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET Jun 22 $49 +$91 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$22 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $76 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$15 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $112 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $111 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $108 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $107 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $24 −$21 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $93 −$42 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$35 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $62 −$30 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$30 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$17 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$28 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$12 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $58 −$54 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $49 −$43 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $106 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $106 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $98 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $66 +$16 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $81 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $78 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $78 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $76 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $14 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $14 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $141 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Down 6¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.57 · official $64.57 (match) · 3500 history records