Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:32:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfbd…5a6c weather 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (149 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$716 (+10%) realized +$902 · open −$186
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%38W / 54L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day148.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$645
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (149 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -1.0% -10.4% 41% 34% +0.5%
≤30d 92 -1.0% -10.4% 41% 34% +0.5%
≤90d 92 -1.0% -10.4% 41% 34% +0.5%
all 92 -1.0% -10.4% 41% 34% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover148.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 34% +0.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 25% -9.1%
15% -26.8% 20% -17.9%
20% -34.0% 15% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$23 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$902
Unrealized−$186
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses38 / 54
Open positions7
Markets (closed)92 / 99
History coverage6d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day148.8
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? Yes 35¢ 58¢ $52 $87 +$35 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21? No 87¢ 88¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 21? No 80¢ 85¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? Yes 3¢ 18¢ $3 $19 +$16 (+499%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 21? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $232 $0 −$232 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 21 $219 −$15 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $56 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $111 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $95 +$25 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $51 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 21 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $67 −$45 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $58 −$53 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 20? Jun 21 $178 +$329 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? Jun 21 $115 +$34 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? Jun 21 $165 +$56 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$7 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $95 −$47 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 −$9 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $8 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $396 +$63 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $93 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $150 +$39 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $143 −$82 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 20? Jun 20 $27 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? Jun 20 $43 +$9 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $137 −$12 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 19 $8 −$2 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $46 −$15 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $146 +$118 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$6 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $54 +$45 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Jun 19 $79 +$121 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $22 −$21 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $63 −$43 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $64 −$62 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? Jun 18 $16 −$13 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $33 −$16 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $347 +$57 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $24 −$23 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 +$127 +712%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $23 +$6 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $161 +$72 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $56 −$26 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $22 4m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 13m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 70¢ $10 43m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 75¢ $9 46m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 75¢ $5 46m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 75¢ $5 46m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 72¢ $56 47m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 76¢ $4 47m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 77¢ $4 48m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 88¢ $5 54m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 91¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 91¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 91¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 80¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 85¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 85¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 84¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 87¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 50¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 41¢ $9 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.65 · official $189.02 (match) · 946 history records