Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfbd…f184 crypto 263 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$599 (-13%) realized −$599 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate31%82W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$22
14 days−$99
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$245
sports 14% −$188
economics 6% −$102
politics 2% −$75
other 2% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +20.6% +9.1% 44% 44% -0.3%
≤30d 63 +9.9% -0.6% 43% 41% -17.9%
≤90d 209 -24.3% -31.5% 17% 16% -54.9%
all 263 +7.6% -2.6% 31% 24% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 24% -21.6%
10% -12.0% 22% -29.1%
15% -20.5% 21% -35.9%
20% -28.3% 19% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$599
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses82 / 181
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)263 / 263
History coverage229d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 263 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $79 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$11 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$11 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$11 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$11 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$10 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$24 +554%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1 $0 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $14 +$16 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $14 +$16 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$28 +529%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$24 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $17 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $114 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$16 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $89 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$17 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$17 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$19 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$19 +178%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $28 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 746 history records