Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DF 0xdfbc…4f24 crypto 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%58W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day41.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -6.5% -15.4% 42% 40% -12.5%
≤30d 137 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 40% -12.4%
≤90d 137 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 40% -12.4%
all 137 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 40% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 40% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 39% -20.8%
15% -30.8% 37% -28.4%
20% -37.6% 22% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses58 / 79
Open positions3
Markets (closed)137 / 140
History coverage9d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day41.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 82¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -66%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -47%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -54%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +81%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 22¢ $1 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL No 26¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $3 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 20h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 53¢ $3 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $4 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.04 · official $9.04 (match) · 376 history records