Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfba…5ae6 other 260 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$24
14 days−$34
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$44
sports 28% −$27
politics 7% −$9
culture 7% −$6
economics 4% $0
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% $0
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 259 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 260
History coverage144d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $420 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $61 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $61 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $257 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $287 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $175 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $254 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $160 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $329 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 20 $331 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $416 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $366 −$2 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $741 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $624 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $413 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $398 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $450 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $771 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $176 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $902 −$2 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $232 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $134 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $422 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $131 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $379 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $552 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $68 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $257 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $343 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $846 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 2h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 4h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 5h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 6h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $60 8h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $61 9h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 11h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 13h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 21h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 22h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 28h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 30h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 30h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 32h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 34h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 36h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 37h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 39h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 40h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 41h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 43h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 44h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $62 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $62 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $62 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.85 · official $59.85 (match) · 1446 history records