Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DF 0xdfb9…be64 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 394d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,451 (-12%) realized −$8,441 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate27%9W / 24L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,159per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 394d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$6,940
sports 23% −$9,787
politics 6% +$2,531
other 2% −$68
crypto 0% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 33 -16.0% -24.0% 27% 21% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.0% 21% -27.7%
10% ← realistic here -31.3% 12% -34.6%
15% -37.9% 12% -40.9%
20% -44.0% 6% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$2,300) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$951 vs −$951 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

394d coverage
Net worth$1,252
Realized−$8,441
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage394d
Avg bet$2,159
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance Norway 65¢ 64¢ $1,262 $1,252 −$10 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $5,043 −$5,000 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $2,032 −$2,000 -98%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 09 $5,460 −$1,317 -24%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 09 $6,790 −$5,318 -78%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $23,200 −$3,294 -14%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? Mar 08 $2,417 +$212 +9%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 05 $823 −$184 -22%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 05 $3,521 +$1,797 +51%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 05 $3,973 +$1,606 +40%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Mar 05 $3,815 +$1,800 +47%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Mar 03 $995 −$4 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $1,018 −$63 -6%
Iran strike on Israel by Friday? Jun 14 $607 −$607 -100%
Solana above $150 on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi Jun 13 $500 +$73 +15%
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Israel military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline? Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by Friday? Jun 12 $2,080 −$2,041 -98%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $3,308 −$1,461 -44%
Will Norway beat Italy? Jun 07 $200 +$27 +14%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 06 $200 +$11 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $400 −$32 -8%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Jun 04 $490 −$40 -8%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 04 $1,400 −$546 -39%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 03 $2,300 −$903 -39%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $1,500 +$3,034 +202%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance BUY Norway 65¢ $1,275 43m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 62¢ $1,011 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 66¢ $1,010 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 74¢ $1,008 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 78¢ $2,013 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 46¢ $406 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 45¢ $305 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $305 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $1,016 4h
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? SELL No 61¢ $4,143 112d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $1,472 112d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $6,790 113d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No 27¢ $4,864 113d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No 32¢ $1,919 113d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 34¢ $8,100 113d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No 29¢ $5,477 113d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 81¢ $5,460 114d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? BUY No 92¢ $2,417 114d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No 41¢ $7,645 114d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 41¢ $5,100 116d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? SELL Yes 22¢ $639 116d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 41¢ $5,000 116d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 39¢ $5,000 116d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $4,326 116d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? SELL Yes 86¢ $4,755 116d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $5,615 116d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? BUY Yes 28¢ $823 116d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? SELL Yes 84¢ $824 116d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $2,546 118d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $3,300 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,252.47 · official $1,252.47 (match) · 184 history records