Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfb8…4a5d crypto 47 markets active 15h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+4%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 27L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$7
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% $0
sports 39% +$10
other 15% −$2
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +5.5% -4.6% 32% 29% +1.8%
≤30d 40 +4.6% -5.4% 32% 22% -1.3%
≤90d 40 +4.6% -5.4% 32% 22% -1.3%
all 40 +4.6% -5.4% 32% 22% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 22% -1.3%
10% -14.4% 20% -10.8%
15% -22.7% 18% -19.4%
20% -30.3% 10% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 47
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Fran Jun 17 $2 +$3 +128%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $3 +$6 +212%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -87%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +101%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -17%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -23%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -10%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? Jun 10 $2 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -15%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 -14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -18%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -7%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $2 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 09 $3 $0 -4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 09 $2 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Fran BUY 43¢ $2 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 61¢ $1 38h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 50¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will SELL 36¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will BUY 40¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 31¢ $5 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL 64¢ $1 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 54¢ $1 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 38¢ $2 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Wil BUY 33¢ $4 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 AND Will S BUY 33¢ $3 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 SELL 4¢ $0 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 31¢ $3 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 28¢ $2 5d
Mexico leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 5d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 52¢ $1 5d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 60¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? A BUY 15¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 SELL Over 44¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records