Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DF 0xdfb5…7c25 weather 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$112 (-42%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$122
tech 37% +$7
other 6% $0
weather 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.0% -12.2% 0% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 2 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 0% -4.0%
≤90d 12 +1.0% -8.7% 92% 0% -4.5%
all 13 -6.8% -15.7% 85% 0% -52.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 0% -52.8%
10% -23.8% 0% -57.3%
15% -31.1% 0% -61.4%
20% -37.9% 0% -65.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$61 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)13 / 24
History coverage177d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? May 28 $98 +$7 +7%
Will CR win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 20? May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will KP Sharma Oli be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Rabi Lamichhane be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 20? May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C or below on March 20? May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? May 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 20? May 03 $1 $0 +2%
Canadiens vs. Penguins Dec 21 $122 −$122 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 14h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? SELL No 37¢ $47 18d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $39 18d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $5 19d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? SELL No 38¢ $57 19d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $20 19d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $35 19d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $12 44d
Will CR win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa BUY No 100¢ $1 89d
Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa BUY No 100¢ $1 89d
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa BUY Yes 99¢ $1 89d
Will KP Sharma Oli be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? BUY No 100¢ $1 89d
Will Rabi Lamichhane be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? BUY No 100¢ $1 89d
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 89d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 89d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 20? BUY No 98¢ $1 89d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 20? BUY No 99¢ $1 89d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C or below on March 20? BUY No 99¢ $1 89d
Canadiens vs. Penguins BUY Canadiens 51¢ $122 176d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.82 · official $24.82 (match) · 57 history records