Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:24:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DF 0xdfb5…0f14 other 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-2%) realized −$41 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%28W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$79
sports 13% +$62
world 1% −$30
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -17.7% -25.5% 19% 19% -11.9%
≤30d 144 -17.7% -25.5% 19% 19% -11.9%
≤90d 144 -17.7% -25.5% 19% 19% -11.9%
all 144 -17.7% -25.5% 19% 19% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 19% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 19% -20.4%
15% -39.2% 19% -28.1%
20% -45.1% 19% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$15 · ×3.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses28 / 116
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)144 / 146
History coverage7d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 28 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $10 −$3 -28%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$56 +276%
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $20 +$91 +442%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $21 +$133 +650%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $21 +$122 +596%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $20 +$25 +124%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $20 +$15 +73%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $7 14h
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 14h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 15h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 15h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 15h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 15h
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 17h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 17h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 17h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 17h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 18h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 18h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 19h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 20h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 38h
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 38h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 38h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 38h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 39h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.85 · official $57.85 (match) · 273 history records