Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:41:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DF 0xdfb5…8740 crypto 999 markets active 1h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$955 (+4%) realized +$914 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%460W / 526L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days−$3
14 days−$14
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$53
sports 28% −$293
other 25% +$689
culture 0% +$88
world 0% +$41
finance 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -29.0% -35.7% 35% 35% -10.0%
≤30d 68 -11.0% -19.5% 38% 38% -2.8%
≤90d 909 -1.8% -11.1% 47% 46% -9.1%
all 986 -0.4% -9.9% 47% 45% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 45% -7.1%
10% -18.5% 43% -16.0%
15% -26.4% 40% -24.1%
20% -33.6% 35% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized+$914
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses460 / 526
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions10
Markets (closed)986 / 999
History coverage208d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 986 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $50 $81 +$31 (+61%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $10 $33 +$23 (+229%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-36%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+45%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $42 −$41 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 +$88 +172%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $22 −$19 -87%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$23 +47%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $55 −$54 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $56 +$35 +62%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$26 +86%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +90%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 +$15 +146%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $61 +$64 +105%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $111 +$66 +59%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$20 +197%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 +$52 +510%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $20 +$21 +105%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $31 +$38 +124%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 +$28 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 14h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $42 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $139 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 5¢ $3 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $22 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $73 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $50 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea Re BUY 38¢ $25 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $55 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 4d
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 4d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $56 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $56 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 5d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $70 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 49¢ $30 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 6d
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY 31¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $40 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.77 · official $270.77 (match) · 2240 history records