Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdfaf…0b2c
other · 42 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$13 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage471d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 2 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 85¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 34¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $7 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -42%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Czechia be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? May 10 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 05 $3 $0 +5%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 05 $2 +$1 +52%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 03 $13 $0 +4%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $1 $0 +2%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $1 $0 -26%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February Mar 21 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 50% $0
other 25% −$12
politics 12% $0
crypto 6% −$1
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $30 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $6 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $36 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $10 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $10 13h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 24h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $40 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $40 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $36 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $23 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $13 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $36 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $36 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $23 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $36 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $9 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $28 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -4.2% -13.3% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -4.2% -13.3% 20% 0% -9.7%
all 40 -7.5% -16.4% 38% 2% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 2% -11.5%
10% -24.4% 2% -20.0%
15% -31.7% 2% -27.7%
20% -38.4% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.21 · official $28.17 (match) · 117 history records