Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DF 0xdfae…998f crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$130 (-88%) realized −$129 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$118
crypto 21% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +35.3% +22.4% 70% 70% +23.7%
≤30d 10 +35.3% +22.4% 70% 70% +23.7%
≤90d 13 +4.1% -5.8% 54% 54% -91.1%
all 13 +4.1% -5.8% 54% 54% -91.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 54% -91.1%
10% -14.9% 54% -91.9%
15% -23.1% 54% -92.7%
20% -30.6% 54% -93.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$22 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$129
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage80d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 50¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 23? Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on March 27? Mar 27 $118 −$118 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.61 · official $5.07 (match) · 23 history records