Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:56:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DF 0xdfaa…e220 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 356d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$2
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$3
world 30% −$3
sports 17% −$2
economics 4% $0
culture 4% −$1
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.9% -6.9% 60% 10% -9.1%
≤30d 28 +42.4% +28.9% 46% 11% -9.3%
≤90d 34 +34.6% +21.8% 41% 9% -9.5%
all 44 +27.2% +15.0% 34% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.0% 9% -9.5%
10% +4.0% 5% -18.2%
15% -6.0% 2% -26.1%
20% -15.2% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage356d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $113 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $279 +$3 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $1 $0 +24%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $3 $0 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $36 −$2 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $98 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $99 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $64 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $7 +$1 +11%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $105 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $62 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $85 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $101 +$2 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $90 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $181 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $102 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $112 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 03 $147 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $102 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $6 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $108 +$5 +5%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $455 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $543 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $58 −$7 -11%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $70 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,099 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $411 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Sep 28 $1 $0 -1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $193 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $212 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $210 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 06 $2 $0 +20%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 06 $212 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 06 $212 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $113 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $113 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $62 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $62 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 98¢ $16 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 98¢ $87 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $100 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $110 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $110 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $110 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $107 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $20 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $64 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $90 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $0.00 (match) · 202 history records