Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DF
0xdfa8…cae6
sports · 664 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$5,776 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,518 · open −$258
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,010
Realized−$5,518
Unrealized−$258
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses379 / 280
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$6,185
Open positions5
Markets (closed)659 / 664
History coverage65d
Avg bet$833
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 659 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,248
7 days+$4,437
14 days−$2,039
30 days−$10,421
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 83¢ 100¢ $1,020 $1,228 +$208 (+20%)
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Gen.G 48¢ 50¢ $397 $409 +$12 (+3%)
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Misa Esports 67¢ 100¢ $250 $371 +$121 (+48%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 40¢ 0¢ $401 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 58¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
LoL: Team Vitality vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SK Gaming 49¢ 0¢ $490 $0 −$490 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 46¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 64¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 31¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Game Handicap: FXW7 (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Fluxo W7M 45¢ 0¢ $335 $0 −$335 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Team WE 28¢ 0¢ $840 $0 −$840 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA 60¢ 0¢ $390 $0 −$390 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner DN SOOPers 6¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
LoL: SK Gaming vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SK Gaming 31¢ 0¢ $325 $0 −$325 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner JD Gaming 42¢ 0¢ $1,093 $0 −$1,093 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 67¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 79¢ 0¢ $1,185 $0 −$1,185 (-100%)
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 27¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
LoL: Esprit Shōnen vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (BO3) - LFL Playoffs Ici Japon Corp. Esport 36¢ 0¢ $1,093 $0 −$1,093 (-100%)
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Bilibili Gaming 56¢ 0¢ $840 $0 −$840 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner HANJIN BRION 26¢ 0¢ $208 $0 −$208 (-100%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner GAM Esports 48¢ 0¢ $248 $0 −$248 (-100%)
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Cloud9 66¢ 0¢ $554 $0 −$554 (-100%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner GAM Esports 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 5¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $272 +$108 +40%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $164 +$116 +70%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $355 +$330 +93%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $503 +$107 +21%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $530 +$120 +23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $296 −$296 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $271 +$179 +66%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $333 +$167 +50%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $534 +$216 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $52 +$20 +39%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $522 +$128 +24%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $418 +$232 +56%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $526 +$313 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $303 +$158 +52%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $293 −$289 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $419 +$231 +55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $654 +$179 +27%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $253 +$164 +65%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $456 +$362 +79%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $406 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $303 −$300 -99%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $252 +$102 +40%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $498 +$352 +71%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $549 +$621 +113%
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $772 +$228 +30%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $462 +$188 +41%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $229 +$121 +53%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $153 −$150 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $159 −$149 -94%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $368 +$432 +118%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $666 +$114 +17%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $330 −$320 -97%
LoL: CITA Kaizen vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $365 +$135 +37%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $125 −$110 -88%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 09 $41 −$40 -97%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $1,540 −$103 -7%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $502 +$159 +32%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5) Jun 09 $396 +$454 +114%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $991 −$372 -38%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,329 +$469 +35%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $260 −$250 -96%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $278 −$274 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $71 +$109 +152%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $1,816 +$28 +2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $667 +$333 +50%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $167 −$167 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $2,068 +$18 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$4,096
other 0% −$1,680
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 67¢ $252 45m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 83¢ $1,025 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $202 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 71¢ $272 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $206 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 74¢ $291 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 73¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 58¢ $164 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 45¢ $102 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 54¢ $253 4h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 58¢ $203 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 82¢ $503 4h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY Gen.G 48¢ $403 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 81¢ $530 5h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOS 66¢ $333 17h
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 59¢ $271 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 72¢ $7 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 72¢ $25 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 72¢ $3 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 72¢ $18 21h
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 72¢ $183 21h
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 72¢ $8 21h
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 70¢ $60 21h
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 71¢ $141 21h
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 70¢ $143 21h
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY Partizan Sangal 58¢ $293 21h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 80¢ $522 22h
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 64¢ $418 22h
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY BOMBA Team 16¢ $51 23h
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 NORD 64¢ $324 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 +6.0% -4.1% 62% 58% -1.2%
≤30d 313 -7.3% -16.2% 55% 53% -12.9%
≤90d 659 -1.6% -11.0% 58% 56% -10.2%
all 659 -1.6% -11.0% 58% 56% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 56% -10.2%
10% -19.5% 51% -18.8%
15% ← realistic here -27.3% 44% -26.6%
20% -34.4% 33% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,009.58 · official $2,009.58 (match) · 2200 history records