Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DF 0xdfa6…6c6c sports 281 markets active 5d ago coverage 33d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49,229 (-5%) realized −$49,215 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%140W / 140L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,725per market
Trades / day78.7pace
Fees−$16,582est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22,726
14 days−$38,208
30 days−$13,408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$55,226
other 0% −$1,960
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -45.8% -51.0% 31% 31% -36.9%
≤30d 244 -3.5% -12.7% 52% 48% -10.7%
≤90d 280 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 47% -14.5%
all 280 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 47% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 47% -14.5%
10% -23.6% 46% -22.7%
15% ← realistic here -31.0% 44% -30.1%
20% -37.8% 41% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$4,106) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,688 vs −$3,097 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$49,215
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses140 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$16,582
Open positions1
Markets (closed)280 / 281
History coverage33d
Avg bet$3,725
Trades / day78.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Under 46¢ 26¢ $32 $18 −$14 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 127 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $7,142 −$7,105 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $8,745 +$5,410 +62%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15,192 −$6,551 -43%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5,392 +$2,822 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6,100 −$6,100 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $10,253 +$2,468 +24%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,714 −$1,505 -56%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $4,044 −$2,954 -73%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $1,950 −$1,920 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $1,702 −$1,680 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $2,826 −$2,813 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5,081 −$5,000 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $2,070 −$2,070 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $3,773 +$2,477 +66%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $3,834 +$4,399 +115%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $2,640 −$2,602 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $1,899 +$1,701 +90%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $3,189 +$1,457 +46%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $2,504 +$3,496 +140%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 10 $497 −$490 -98%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $2,956 −$2,915 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $3,178 −$3,128 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $4,724 −$4,667 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) Jun 09 $2,311 −$2,279 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $3,070 −$2,757 -90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $1,456 −$1,432 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $1,640 −$1,615 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3,683 +$7,262 +197%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $940 −$940 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $64,265 +$25,819 +40%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $1,980 −$1,980 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,818 +$276 +15%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $1,107 −$1,081 -98%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $5,075 +$4,925 +97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $361 +$541 +150%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $507 −$507 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $3,590 −$1,670 -46%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $4,587 +$413 +9%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $527 −$520 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $2,929 +$3,092 +106%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5) Jun 06 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $3,476 +$2,524 +73%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) Jun 06 $960 −$960 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $1,314 +$686 +52%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $832 +$986 +119%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $1,457 +$982 +67%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $1,014 +$909 +90%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $1,410 +$990 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $6,087 +$339 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $34,014 −$33,692 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 19¢ $1,542 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $35 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $35 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $70 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $200 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $17 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $18 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $266 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $202 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $0 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $26 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $52 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $58 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $18 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $0 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $114 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $105 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $48 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $215 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $410 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $645 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $645 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.27 · official $18.27 (match) · 2750 history records