Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DF 0xdfa2…b089 other 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+0%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate21%14W / 53L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 63% −$14
other 18% +$4
politics 13% −$9
sports 2% +$78
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 +7.2% -3.0% 20% 15% -8.2%
all 67 +5.8% -4.3% 21% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 12% -9.3%
10% -13.4% 12% -18.0%
15% -21.8% 9% -25.9%
20% -29.5% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×8.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses14 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage598d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $197 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $56 $0 +1%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $21 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $165 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $156 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $149 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $162 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $310 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $166 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $152 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $151 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $159 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $167 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $152 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $324 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 24 $152 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $152 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $153 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $159 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $161 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $166 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $162 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $159 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $156 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $160 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $11 +$8 +76%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Bruins vs. Panthers Apr 06 $6 +$9 +138%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 02 $25 $0 +1%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 02 $20 +$30 +150%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 02 $51 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 5h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 27h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 28h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 3d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $34 6d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 9d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 9d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 14d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 14d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 14d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $27 15d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $30 17d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 19d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 19d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 25d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 25d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $34 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.31 · official $100.31 (match) · 285 history records